McGlone Sees Shift from Risk Assets to US Treasuries

Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone has identified what may now give investors a reason to sell Bitcoin and gold. According to the analyst, the main beneficiary of capital flows will be U.S. Treasuries offering yields around 5%. This comes after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to a range of 3.75%-4%. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds moved close to the psychological 5% level, while global markets were hit by another wave of rising energy prices.

The ratio of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) to long-term bonds is now at extremes last seen in 1990. Historically, such peaks have always preceded a severe recession and lower interest rates. However, the current cycle is unique: the Fed is not easing but continues to tighten financial conditions, sharply increasing the risks of a 'break' in the global economy and equity markets.

McGlone considers the current macroeconomic environment an 'endgame' for risk assets. He emphasizes that when the U.S. government is prepared to pay a fixed 5% annual return in dollars on government-backed securities, the logic of holding alternative assets changes completely. According to McGlone, gold loses investment appeal because it does not generate coupon income and is guaranteed to lose out to the real yield offered by government bonds.

Bitcoin, amid scarce liquidity, trades as a high-risk asset rather than a store of value. As major investors protect capital from falling equity markets, they will take profits in crypto in favor of a safe haven. McGlone expects an inevitable portfolio rotation and believes that the final stage of the current monetary tightening cycle will trigger a mass exodus into U.S. government bonds.