Miners' Relief Short-Lived: Bitcoin Rally Fails to Save Them from Difficulty
Bitcoin's recent rally to $84,751 may have provided some relief for miners, but it seems that the improvement in mining economics is only temporary. The current difficulty adjustment points to a 2.48% reduction around October 3, indicating that slower blocks are dominating the network.
Theoretically, the gross hashprice increased by 2.65% above the prior baseline, suggesting that miners' revenue per unit of computing power has improved modestly. However, the estimate is based on a narrow window and may not reflect the broader market conditions.
According to CryptoSlate's analysis, Bitcoin needed to reach about $82,877 to neutralize the revenue-per-hash impact of the difficulty increase forecast for September 19. With the current price above this threshold, miners' gross revenue per unit of computing power has improved, but it remains dependent on subsidy and price.
The durability of this relief is still unresolved, and several factors need to be considered before making any conclusions. The next test will come in three parts: BTC price remaining above the prior modeled hurdle, a larger fee contribution, and a downward retarget that survives a much larger share of the epoch.