Mizuho: Crypto Market Showing Signs of Bottoming Out

Mizuho's Dan Dolev has identified three signs that suggest the crypto market may be bottoming out. One key indicator is that the current rally is running on less leverage than previous ones, indicating spot capital is driving gains rather than a continued short squeeze.

Coin-denominated open interest fell to a one-month low after the initial rally and has not rebuilt, meaning 'the continuation is being carried by spot and ETF demand rather than leveraged longs.'

Retail trading activity could offer another leg higher. Volumes remain 'three years washed-out' but firming flows into still-depressed exchange volume resemble a 'late-consolidation setup'. Dolev notes the key question remains whether ETF-led accumulation eventually pulls retail activity back onto exchanges, or if ETFs continue to absorb that demand.

Dolev sees strong ETF demand as another positive sign. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $1.9 billion over the past week, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025, with five consecutive days of inflows led by IBIT.