Morgan Stanley Puts Coinbase Price Target at $250 Amid Regulatory Concerns

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage of Coinbase with an 'Equal Weight' rating and a $250 price target, implying around 40% upside from current levels. However, analyst Michael Cyprys notes that the wide range of potential outcomes justifies a neutral stance.

Cyprys points out that Coinbase has expanded significantly beyond its exchange roots, offering a full-stack platform for retail and institutional trading, custody, stablecoins, derivatives, staking, payments, and onchain infrastructure. The company now boasts 7.6 million monthly transacting users and $246 billion in assets on the platform.

Despite this growth, Cyprys notes that retail crypto trading remains a key swing factor, accounting for around 40% of revenue. He forecasts a cyclical reset in 2026, followed by a sharp rebound in 2027 and normalization in 2028, when he expects around $3.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA.

The analyst believes that regulatory clarity, Coinbase's 'Everything Exchange' push into new assets, and its stablecoin and Base infrastructure all expand the company's addressable market, but also invite more competition and gradual pricing pressure.