MVRV-Z Score Fails to Signal Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Amid Trump Tariff Chaos

The MVRV-Z Score, an indicator used to track Bitcoin's market value relative to its realized value, failed to signal the bear market bottom for the first time in history. This cycle saw a significant deviation from previous patterns due to the Trump administration's tariff announcements and policy shocks.

Historically, major cycle bottoms have seen the MVRV-Z Score touch or fall below zero into 'deep undervaluation.' However, this cycle was marked by increased volatility and rapid sentiment shifts caused by Trump's tariff announcements, reversals, and policy headlines. The June 2026 low saw the Z-score remain positive instead of dipping below zero.

The Trump administration's actions disrupted Bitcoin's traditional cycle dynamics, moving it away from cleaner market structure seen in previous eras. Tariff threats, escalations, pauses, and reversals drove abrupt volatility and rapid sentiment shifts, creating a more headline-driven market.