Options Market Prices Smaller Moves for IBIT Amid Calmer Sentiment
Bitcoin's recent rebound has led options traders to price smaller moves for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), according to data. The implied volatility of IBIT stood at 37.4%, which is below its realized volatility over the past month, coming in at 45.5%. This comparison suggests that options pricing has become less aggressive than the fund's recent trading history.
The analysis identified resistance near $87,000, where Bitcoin's advance stalled on Sept. 21, and support between $76,000 and $77,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $84,751, up 1.6% over 24 hours. The large batch of contracts expiring on Friday, Sept. 25 adds a near-term event to the market's focus as traders assess whether calmer options pricing will persist.
Investment and options strategist Koen Hoorelbeke noted that 'in our view the options market appears to be pricing calmer conditions than the recent past produced.' The contrast between implied and realized volatility does not establish how prices will move after the contracts expire, but it indicates a shift in market sentiment.