Pappas leads New Hampshire Senate race in latest polls

Recent polls show Democratic candidate Chris Pappas leading the race for New Hampshire’s Senate seat, with 51% support according to an AARP survey. This finding challenges Republican hopes of flipping the seat, which is open due to Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement. Previous polls, including a New York Times/Siena survey and a Rasmussen poll, also placed Pappas ahead by mid-single digits.

The race pits Pappas against Republican John Sununu, whose nomination was backed by former President Donald Trump. Despite the GOP’s optimism, current public polling and market pricing suggest a strong Democratic advantage. The market odds currently reflect an 88.5% probability of a Pappas victory.

While the AARP poll’s source, a Tier 3 social media account, may limit its impact, the trend aligns with other reputable surveys. Analysts advise watching for shifts in polling data, particularly from credible sources, as well as campaign developments and voter turnout trends, which could influence the race’s outcome.