Pectra Upgrade Creates Blob Market Imbalance
The recent Pectra upgrade on Ethereum has led to an oversupply situation in the blob market, causing gas prices to drop to 1 wei. This imbalance is attributed to the increase in target and maximum blob counts per block, which rollups currently consume only two-thirds of.
As a result, blob gas prices have decreased by 14.5% during empty usage but increased by only 8.2% when usage hits the target. This asymmetry forces base fees toward 1 wei whenever demand falls below the target, causing the fee market to fail to converge on equilibrium.
The upgrade has also led to a significant increase in daily blob purchases, with rollups purchasing an average of 25,600 blobs per day since May 7, 2025. This surge in supply has resulted in an oversupply situation, where only two-thirds of the new target is being utilized.