Poland's NBP Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged Amid Hawkish Expectations

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) maintained its key interest rate at 3.75% in its latest decision, leaving the market somewhat underwhelmed.

ING's Frantisek Taborsky noted that the statement provided little new guidance, shifting focus to Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference later today.

Taborisky expects a somewhat more hawkish tone from Glapinski than in July, reflecting higher inflation and a firmer outlook. However, with markets already pricing around 85bp of tightening, he believes there is a high bar for a surprise.

The analyst sees scope for some easing in rate expectations and a rise in the EUR/PLN exchange rate, potentially pushing it back above 4.320. This is supported by record gas prices, which are also contributing to the increase in the value of the euro against the Polish zloty.