RBNZ Seen Hiking OCR Gradually Through 2027

TD Securities' analysts Prashant Newnaha and Howard Du expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% in September, as markets have already priced in.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voters are expected to reach this decision by consensus, with little reason for the RBNZ to deviate from its May forecast.

The OCR is projected to reach 3% by year-end and around 3.30% terminal, with further 25 basis point hikes in December 2026 and February 2027.