Renewable Mining Model Still Loses Money Despite Bitcoin Price Rise

Researchers at the Technological University of the Shannon modeled a 20 MW Bitcoin mine connected to a hypothetical 100 MW Irish wind farm. They used hourly market data from 2024 and found that even with 25% of the wind farm's output curtailed, the project fails to recover its investment inside six years under any scenario once Bitcoin's price falls below €60,000.

The study tested various curtailment levels and found diminishing returns beyond a certain range. Scaling the mine to 30 MW pushed absorption to 93.4% of curtailed power, but still resulted in significant hardware costs for only a small amount of additional curtailed electricity.

At current prices, none of the tested curtailment levels produce a payback inside six years. The researchers found that even if Bitcoin rises 30% annually, the project still loses money as long as hashrate keeps pace.

The study's central finding is a six-year sensitivity table that plots Bitcoin's price growth against global hashrate growth for the same 20 MW project. Every point along the diagonal, where both variables grow at the same annual rate, results in a negative net present value of €10.1 million, with a negative 5.7% return.

The researchers found that only when Bitcoin's growth outpaces hashrate growth by a wide margin does the project turn profitable. This requires a large price differential between Bitcoin and hashrate.