Robinhood Launches Bitcoin Price Prediction Market for 2026
Robinhood has launched a prediction market for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on October 5, 2026 at 10 AM EDT. The market allows users to bet on whether Bitcoin's price will reach specific thresholds, with options ranging from $85,900 to $86,300. As of the latest data, the highest confidence is placed on BTC being $85,900 or above, with a 73-cent probability. Other thresholds like $86,000 or above have a 64-cent probability, while $86,200 or above is seen as less likely at 34 cents.
The prediction market operates 24 hours a day, except for a brief maintenance window from 3 AM to 5 AM ET every Thursday. The contract's outcome will be determined using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), which averages 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. Payouts occur within an hour of the event's resolution, with users earning $1 for every correct contract they own.
Robinhood Derivatives, LLC offers these event contracts through platforms like KalshiEX LLC and ForecastEX, LLC. However, certain restrictions apply, such as prohibitions for individuals with material non-public information or those employed by source agencies. The company emphasizes that trading involves significant risk and advises users to consider their personal financial circumstances before participating.