Robinhood Launches Bitcoin Price Prediction Market for 2026
On October 5, 2026, Bitcoin enthusiasts and traders will have a unique opportunity to predict the cryptocurrency's price at 2 AM EDT. Robinhood's prediction market is offering contracts based on the price of Bitcoin, with several price ranges available for speculation. The most popular prediction is for Bitcoin to be at $85,500 or above, with 84 cents in potential payout per contract. Other price points, such as $85,600 or above and $85,700 or above, have lower probabilities but higher potential rewards.
The contract resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), which collects 60 RTI prices in the last minute before expiration. The official price is the average of these values. Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, through various exchanges, facilitates these event contracts. The payout, if correct, is usually within an hour of event resolution.
Trading is available 24 hours a day, except for a brief maintenance window from 3 AM to 5 AM ET on Thursdays. Participants can earn $1 for every correct contract they own or choose to close their position before the event resolves. Additional fees may apply, and it's important to read the full contract terms and conditions.
There are trading prohibitions for persons employed by any of the Source Agencies or those holding material, non-public information on the underlying asset. The event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through several exchanges, including KalshiEX LLC and North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc.