Robinhood Prediction Market Sets Odds for Bitcoin's 2026 Price

A prediction market on Robinhood.com is offering odds for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on September 21, 2026 at 9pm EDT. The current predictions are as follows: $86,100 or above has a probability of 74%, $86,200 or above has a probability of 40%, and $86,300 or above has a probability of 17%. The price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.

According to the contract terms, participants can earn $1 for every contract they own if their prediction is correct. Alternatively, they can close their position before the event resolves, but additional fees apply. It's worth noting that trading prohibitions are in place for persons employed by certain agencies or holding material non-public information on Bitcoin.