Bernstein analysts predict that prediction markets will become a major revenue driver for Robinhood Markets (HOOD), potentially surpassing its crypto-derived revenue by 2028. According to their forecast, prediction markets could generate up to $1.7 billion in revenue for Robinhood by 2028, exceeding the projected $1.6 billion from crypto-based revenues for that year.
The analysts expect Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to grow from about $650 million this year to $1.7 billion by 2028, making up roughly 18% of the platform’s projected $9.4 billion in total revenue for that year. This forecast comes ahead of Robinhood’s third-quarter 2026 earnings report, highlighting the growing importance of prediction markets as a revenue source.
Bernstein anticipates a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase in Robinhood’s Q3 revenue, reaching around $1.5 billion. This growth is driven by rising equity notional volumes, options volumes, event contract volumes, and a recovery in crypto trading volume. The firm has raised its revenue estimates for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027, and 3% for 2028, while maintaining a $160 price target.
Despite the positive outlook, Robinhood’s Nasdaq-traded shares were set to open lower on Monday, with premarket activity showing a stock price of $93.60. Over the past 12 months, HOOD stock has declined by more than 29%.