Robinhood's Crypto Prediction Market Targets BTC Price on October 4, 2026

Robinhood's Crypto Prediction Market has generated a futures contract related to the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on a specific date. On October 4, 2026, at 3am EDT, the price of BTC will be determined to be either above $84,200, above $84,300, above $84,400, or above $84,500. The price used for this determination is based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) and is calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration.

The contract allows traders to bet on the price of BTC, with payouts of $1 for every contract owned if the prediction is correct. However, there are restrictions and eligibility requirements, including a prohibition on trading for persons employed by certain agencies or holding material non-public information on the underlying asset.

The event is being offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through various exchanges, including KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEX, LLC, Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC, or North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc.