Sberbank Forecasts $46 Billion in Regulated Crypto Trading for Russia

Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, has made a forecast about the size of its newly legalized crypto market in the first year after new trading rules take effect on September 1. According to deputy chairman Anatoly Popov, no more than about 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) of crypto will change hands on regulated Russian exchanges in that time.

This figure is significant not for its size but as a measure of what legalization does not change. Most crypto activity in Russia is expected to keep flowing outside the regulated venues created by the new law, and Sberbank is positioning itself to profit from the slice that does come onshore.

The forecast is based on Finance Ministry data showing daily cryptocurrency transactions in Russia at around 50 billion rubles ($1.74 billion), or roughly 18 trillion rubles a year. SberCIB Investment Research analysts estimate that about 20% of this volume, or 3.5-4 trillion rubles a year, will be traded on exchanges.

The Bank of Russia has approved Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and USDT for retail trading due to their market capitalization, liquidity, and at least five years of price history. However, the rules limit non-qualified retail investors to 300,000 rubles ($3,645) a year through each intermediary after passing a knowledge test.