Schwab Estimates Bitcoin Fair Value at $95,000 Based on Production Costs

Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, estimates Bitcoin's fair value to be $95,000. This estimate is based on a production-cost framework that identifies two key tiers of miners: efficient and inefficient.

The model uses Glassnode data to determine that efficient miners can produce a single coin for around $60,000, while inefficient miners face costs around $95,000. Ferraioli treats the $95,000 figure as the near-term fair-value reference, typically accompanied by a small premium.

This framework mirrors commodity pricing, where the market price should trade at or above the production cost to keep the network's broader mining base economically viable. The $60,000 level is considered a fundamental support level and aligns with Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, which currently sits in the $60,000 to $62,000 range.