Schwab Research Chief Sees $95K Bitcoin Fair Value

Charles Schwab's Head of Crypto Research Jim Feroli estimates Bitcoin's fair value at around $95,000. This valuation is based on production costs for the least-efficient miners, while efficient miners currently produce Bitcoin at a rough price of $60,000.

Feroli pointed out that Bitcoin's supply-constrained nature means relatively modest inflows could drive significant price gains. He also noted that regulatory clarity and institutional adoption would be key drivers of this growth.

Looking ahead to the summer months, Feroli expects seasonal weakness in Bitcoin prices. However, he believes a year-end rally is possible as risk appetite improves. This potential rally could see prices reach $95,000 in six months or less, according to Feroli's estimate.

The Federal Reserve meeting and the CLARITY Act remain major catalysts for market movements. Feroli expects policymakers to maintain a hawkish tone regardless of their decision on monetary tightening. He also believes that the CLARITY Act, which is largely unpriced in current markets, could revive institutional adoption narratives and drive sustained momentum.