Silicon Valley's political landscape has fractured as AI-focused groups clash over regulation and innovation ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. With just one week until voters head to the polls, pro-AI development groups have spent roughly $8 million supporting lighter regulations, outpacing safeguard-focused groups that have spent about $6.9 million advocating for stricter rules and state-level authority.
The divide is starkly evident in Florida's 25th Congressional District, where Think Big, an affiliate of Leading the Future, spent $310,000 backing Democrat Jared Moskowitz. Meanwhile, Defending Our Values, a safeguard-focused super PAC, invested nearly $857,000 to boost Republican Scott Singer and an additional $740,000 to keep one of his primary opponents from winning. The race exemplifies the broader struggle within Silicon Valley to shape AI policy, with both sides agreeing on the need for guardrails but disagreeing on the pace of development and regulatory reach.
The AI industry initially sought to replicate the success of cryptocurrency political groups, which spent over $130 million during the 2024 election cycle with a 91% win rate. Leading the Future, backed by tech heavyweights like Andreessen Horowitz and OpenAI President Greg Brockman, launched in August 2025 with over $100 million in commitments. However, the strategy backfired in New York’s 12th District Democratic primary, where Think Big spent $8.3 million against state Assemblymember Alex Bores, only to face a counterattack from Anthropic-backed groups that spent about $15 million supporting him.
Spending has slowed significantly heading into the general election, with safeguards-focused groups investing $825,000 this fall to oppose two Republicans who benefited from Leading the Future-aligned spending during the primaries. Overall, about 74% of the roughly $78.5 million spent on federal candidates this cycle went toward primary races. The decline in spending reflects growing public backlash, with a CNBC survey finding that 52% of registered voters believe companies should pause AI development until Congress passes regulations.