Sinopec Chairman Sees China's Oil Demand Peaking in 2025

The head of China's largest refiner, Sinopec Chairman Hou Qijun, has moved up the timeline for when he expects China's oil demand to peak. Speaking at an earnings briefing in Hong Kong, he stated that Chinese oil demand is likely to have peaked by 2025, two years earlier than previously projected.

This revised forecast marks a significant shift from Sinopec's previous estimate of a 2027 peak and even earlier targets floated in late 2024. The company had expected Chinese consumption to reach no more than 800 million metric tons annually, but it now appears that this level may have already been reached.

The acceleration towards a 2025 peak represents a meaningful compression of the forecast timeline. This change is driven by three converging factors: rapid electric vehicle (EV) adoption in China, the country's economic restructuring towards services and technology, and Beijing's low-carbon policy framework.

For energy traders, this news has immediate implications, as long-dated crude oil futures may need to be repriced to reflect lower demand growth assumptions. Sinopec itself is diversifying into hydrogen and other clean energy businesses.