Solana's $100 Break Rejected as Momentum Enters Overbought Territory

Solana's (SOL) attempt to break above $100 has been invalidated after briefly trading above $102, retreating back to around $97. This rejection raises questions about the continuation of the bullish recovery in SOL.

Despite the immediate failure to reach $100, Solana has already seen significant gains, increasing by approximately 27% over the last 30 days and 26% over the last seven. The asset has overcome several key technical hurdles, including its long-term moving average at $89.50, which it surpassed.

However, the RSI is still very high at around 79, indicating that momentum has entered overbought territory. Profit-taking and deleveraging are not unexpected after such a rapid expansion from the mid-$70s. The positioning of derivatives also appears aggressive, with a long/short ratio on Binance's SOL/USDT at roughly 2.07, indicating significantly more longs than shorts among measured accounts.

The situation would change if the daily close broke below $89, exposing $84 and bringing SOL back below its primary long-term trend indicator, followed by the $78-$80 cluster.