Solana's Potential to Overtake Ethereum in Market Cap Depends on More Than Network Activity

Financial analyst and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal believes Solana has the potential to surpass Ethereum in market capitalization. However, Pal suggests that simply comparing network activity is not enough, and instead points to factors such as capital concentration, financial activity, adoption, and token economics.

Pal compared the two networks using a calculation that divides DeFi TVL by an active-user measure. According to this calculation, Ethereum has approximately $200,000 in total value locked per active user, while Solana has around $2,500. Pal notes that this figure does not show how much an average Ethereum or Solana user personally owns or deposits.

Pal gives more weight to lending balances, collateral, and other financial assets than to frequent low-value transactions. He describes Ethereum as financially deeper, associating much of Solana's activity with speculation. DeFiLlama figures from October 3 show that Ethereum holds substantially more DeFi deposits and stablecoins than Solana, but both networks hold billions of dollars across those categories.

Visa's April stablecoin settlement update lists Ethereum and Solana among the supported networks in its pilot. While Visa does not disclose the transaction value processed through either blockchain, the programme establishes a financial use case beyond speculative trading. Stablecoins can support payments, borrowing, and cash management alongside crypto-market transactions.