Stablecoin Liquidity Key for Bitcoin's Q4 Momentum
Bitcoin's second-best Q3 performance in history was followed by Ethereum's best quarter ever, but this strong showing doesn't guarantee sustained gains. Historically, Q4 has been a weaker period for both cryptocurrencies.
The data shows that USDT's 60-day supply change closed September at +$505 million, its first reading above zero in more than three months. This is an improvement from the -$5.7 billion low seen on July 13 and the $450 million monthly increase is a positive sign.
However, only around $17 million of the $541 million improvement during the final three days came from new minting, with most of the increase due to early-August burns dropping out of the calculation. The underlying trend has improved, but it's still early and more liquidity is needed to support the existing trend.
The 30-day average remains at -$564 million, so the number to watch is zero. Bitcoin climbed from roughly $64,000 to $83,700 during the same stretch without stablecoin growth supporting it, which means additional liquidity could be crucial for the momentum to continue.