Supply-Driven Rally: Bitcoin's 50% Surge Without Demand

River's latest newsletter highlights an unusual trend in Bitcoin's recent price action. Despite climbing nearly 50% from its June low, including a gain of more than 10% in the past week, demand hasn't increased to match this surge.

The firm notes that sharp price increases are usually accompanied by rising trading volume, but exchange trading volume is currently 30% lower than at the start of the year. Bitcoin ETFs have bought about 18,000 BTC so far this month, below their monthly average since launching in 2024.

This lack of demand suggests that the price action is supply-driven, according to River. The firm explains that long-term holders have added more than 3 million BTC since 2020, and nearly 4 million BTC that had been dormant for three or more years moved in 2024 and 2025.

River concludes that what's missing is a genuine increase in demand. When that arrives, bitcoin's next bull market will truly begin.