Texas Governor Race Tightens as Democratic Challenger Gains Ground
A Republican has held Texas’ governorship for over 30 years, but recent polls suggest Gov. Greg Abbott may face his toughest challenge yet from Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa. Abbott won re-election by more than 10 points in 2020, but current polls show a tight race. A Fox News survey conducted between Sept. 24-28 found Abbott leading Hinojosa by roughly five points, while a New York Times/Siena University poll from Sept. 21-30 showed Hinojosa ahead by a narrow margin, 49% to 46%.
Experts attribute the competitive race to voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the national Republican Party. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, notes that Trump’s low approval ratings are hurting GOP candidates, even in traditionally red states like Texas. While Trump’s support in Texas is higher than nationally, 51% of respondents in a Texas Politics Project poll had an unfavorable view of him in August, up from 46% in December 2024.
The race isn’t the only political upset in Texas this fall. Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in most polls for the Senate contest. If Hinojosa wins, it would be the first time Texas elected a Democratic governor since 1990. Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project, says Hinojosa would likely use her veto power to block conservative legislation, but it wouldn’t necessarily mean Texas is turning blue.
Analysts believe Abbott still has an advantage due to his campaign resources and conservative policies, but the race is tighter than ever. Blank emphasizes that turnout will be key, with Republicans working to mobilize their base. While Hinojosa’s chances are slim, experts agree that 2026 offers the best opportunity for a Democratic win in Texas in decades.