Treasury yields hit two-decade highs as Bitcoin holds near $87K
US Treasury yields reached their highest levels in over two decades on Monday, as investors reacted to new economic data and anticipated the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points to 5.349%, its highest since April 2002, while the 30-year yield climbed more than seven basis points to 5.703%, the highest since May 2002. The moves followed the Institute for Supply Management’s report that its services Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 54.9 in September, slightly below August’s growth rate but in line with expectations.
Oil prices dropped as Middle Eastern crude exports rose and G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves. Brent crude futures settled 2.36% lower at $99.84 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.41% to $88.91. Despite the decline, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that global stockpiles could take two years to replenish after emergency withdrawals.
Gold prices edged lower due to a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields, which offset reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. Spot gold rose slightly to $4,143.31 an ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.17% higher at $4,169.70. Traders now price a 22% probability of an October rate hike, down from about 70% a week earlier, with the probability of a December increase remaining at 84%. Metals Focus forecasts gold to reach new record highs in 2027, with an average price of $5,330 an ounce next year.
Bitcoin remained near recent highs, trading near $85,680 after entering October with gains. Although technical indicators pointed to cooling short-term momentum, corporate treasury activity and Bitcoin ETF flows provided support. Strategy bought 334 BTC for $28.7 million, while Metaplanet increased its holdings to 44,000 BTC. The market-implied year-end high on Kalshi rose to $95,000, with Bitcoin potentially testing $90,000 if the current positive setup continues.