Uptober's Mixed Record: Bitcoin and Co. Over the Past Nine Years

The concept of 'Uptober' suggests that October is a reliably strong month for the crypto market, with the fourth quarter being the strongest season. To test this claim, we looked at the performance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP over the past nine years, from September 30 to December 31. Our analysis shows that while October has indeed been a strong month for Bitcoin, with seven of nine years ending in the black, the full quarter has been less consistent, with only five of nine years in the black.

The median return for Bitcoin in October is 10.9 percent, but drops to 5.4 percent for the full quarter. This means that while October has been a strong month for Bitcoin, the gains are often wiped out by losses in November and December.

At Ethereum, the hit rate is six of nine for October, but the median return is only 0.7 percent. Over the full quarter, the relationship reverses, with a median return of 22.5 percent. XRP, on the other hand, breaks the pattern, with only three of nine years in the black, and a negative median return of -0.9 percent.

Solana, which has only five quarters of history, has three of five quarters ending in the black, but the returns are highly variable, ranging from -70.0 percent to 376.1 percent.

The most recent fourth quarter, which ended in 2025, ran against the thesis at all four coins, with losses ranging from -23.3 percent to -40.4 percent. This does not refute the idea of seasonality, but does highlight that a single year can be a counter-example to the slogan.

Looking ahead to October 2026, the current prices of the individual coins are around $84,900 for Bitcoin, $2,684 for Ethereum, $120 for Solana, and $1.49 for XRP. However, a quiet start to the month does not necessarily mean that the season will switch on automatically.