US Housing Cycle Predicts Market Peak in 2025-26: Analyst

Macro analyst Jason Pizzino says the next major market peak may be near. He bases his thesis on an 18-year US property cycle, which uses data from over 220 years of sales to predict a housing peak in 2025-26 and a possible trough around 2029-30.

The current cycle began around 2011-12, according to Pizzino's analysis. He points out that the latest data shows US home prices rose 1.5% year-on-year in June, while falling in real terms for a 13th straight month. New-home sales dropped 10.5% in July, with the median price falling to $393,800 - its lowest in five years.

Pizzino's key signal is D.R. Horton, which peaked before the broader market during the last housing cycle and may be a predictor of a stock-market top around late 2026 or early 2027. The homebuilder closed at $142.75 on Friday, with Pizzino suggesting a break below roughly $130 would strengthen his case.

Bitcoin is also being watched closely by investors, which has reclaimed its 200-day moving average and trades near $79,700 today. Pizzino thinks Bitcoin can rally further, but with smaller returns, potentially reaching about $120,000 from the July low. However, he sees $180,000 as much harder if credit continues to tighten.

Another analyst, Benjamin Cowen, is more cautious and advises investors not to rely solely on the cycle for trading signals. 'I buy index funds every single month... even if I think we're going to have a correction,' he said.