US Jobs Data Revised Down 60,000, Easing Fed Rate Hike Pressure

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised its earlier estimates of job gains for July and August, cutting them by a total of 60,000. This adjustment, announced on October 2, significantly weakened the argument for another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, potentially easing pressure on Bitcoin and other speculative assets.

July’s job gains were revised from a 21,000 increase to a 10,000 loss, while August’s figures dropped from 162,000 to 133,000. The September employment report showed only 29,000 new jobs added. Additionally, average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payrolls rose just 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually, down from earlier estimates of 0.3% and 3.1% for August.

These revisions come after the Fed’s September 16 rate hike, which brought the target range to 3.75%, 4%. The central bank had cited steady job gains and elevated inflation as reasons for tightening policy. However, the revised data suggests a softer labor market, potentially reducing the need for further rate increases.

For Bitcoin, weaker labor market data could ease concerns about higher discount rates, which typically pressure speculative assets. However, inflation remains a concern, with August’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation running at 3.4% annually, above the Fed’s 2% target.

The household survey presented a different picture, showing an estimated 406,000 employment increase and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. The labor force grew by 485,000, allowing both employment and unemployment to rise simultaneously. These figures, which count people rather than jobs, complicate the interpretation of the labor market’s health.

The mixed data limits both declarations of a recession and claims of a decisive employment rebound. The next jobs report is scheduled for November 6, which could provide further clarity on the labor market’s direction.