US Jobs Report Triggers Rate Pause Bets and Crypto Rally
The latest US jobs report showed a weaker-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls, adding just 29,000 new jobs in September. This fell short of economists' forecasts of 84,000 to 90,000 and led to a rise in unemployment to 4.2%. The data also included downward revisions to previous months' job growth.
As a result, the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision is now seen as more likely to be a pause rather than another rate hike. Kalshi puts the probability of an October rate pause at 85%, up from earlier expectations. This dovish shift in rate expectations has spread across financial markets, with stocks, gold, and silver rising, while Treasury yields fell.
Bitcoin took advantage of this risk-on rally to surge above $87,000, extending its recovery over several timeframes. The wider cryptocurrency market also moved higher, with a total market capitalization that returned above $3 trillion after the employment report.