US Treasury Yields: Large Shocks Predict -10% S&P 500 Correction Risk

A new event study by André Dragosch has found that significant shocks in the US 10-year Treasury yield can trigger a -10% correction in the S&P 500 index. The research ties bond-stock moves to potential Fed pivot and full Bitcoin bull market implications.

The analysis suggests that the speed of these yield shocks is crucial in determining when the S&P 500 faces elevated risk of a -10% correction. According to Dragosch, PhD, in Financial History, European Head of Research at Bitwise, 'US 10Y Yield shock thresholds that raise S&P 500 -10% correction odds'.

The study's findings have significant implications for investors and market participants, particularly in the context of the current Bitcoin bull market. As Dragosch notes, 'Bitcoin bull market implications' are tied to potential Fed pivot and bond-stock moves.