VanEck Predicts $3 Million Bitcoin by 2050 on Global Trade Adoption

VanEck has set an ambitious long-term target for Bitcoin, forecasting that the cryptocurrency could reach $3 million by 2050 if it becomes widely adopted in global trade. The firm’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, sees Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against dollar debasement, citing its potential to capture a significant share of international commerce, including energy markets. As a medium-term goal, VanEck points to a price of around $500,000 per Bitcoin, which would represent roughly half of gold’s current market capitalization.

Sigel emphasized that VanEck evaluates investments with a 10-year macroeconomic horizon in mind. He highlighted growing interest in Bitcoin among younger generations and sovereign states, suggesting that despite volatility, adoption of the cryptocurrency is likely to continue. However, the firm took a more cautious stance on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, having previously dropped an $180,000 price target earlier this year.

Sigel also drew attention to Bitcoin miners, noting that their long-term power contracts have become more valuable due to surging demand from the artificial intelligence sector. These contracts reduce miners’ dependence on Bitcoin’s price and provide flexibility to repurpose capacity for AI needs. VanEck’s aggregate exposure to Bitcoin-related instruments is now at an all-time high across its active strategies.

Comparing Bitcoin to gold, Sigel noted that while both assets serve similar portfolio functions, Bitcoin is roughly three times more volatile. Institutional investors often allocate smaller positions to Bitcoin to achieve comparable risk levels. VanEck currently allocates about 2% of its assets under management to digital assets and Bitcoin-related instruments, compared to 13% in gold and gold-mining companies. Sigel also pointed out that Bitcoin’s mobility advantages, such as near-instant transfers, set it apart from gold.