VanEck Sees $500K Bitcoin Target As Gold Benchmark Supports Long-Term Upside Case

VanEck's Head of Blockchain Research Matthew Sigel says Bitcoin is in an early recovery stage, backed by 'real money' through exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows.

The firm uses gold as a benchmark for its long-term upside case and sees half of gold's market capitalization as the 'north star' for Bitcoin. This puts the price at about $500,000, which could happen this cycle or the next.

Sigel also points out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is now at a multi-year high, with the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio measuring how many ounces of gold one Bitcoin can buy having dropped to around 16-17 from its prior peak of about 40. This means Bitcoin could theoretically double against gold.

Sigel acknowledges that quantum computing poses some risks for Bitcoin, but doesn't think it's a reason to sell. He also notes that the main bear case is high Treasury yields potentially 'breaking something' in the market, which could lead to capital flowing back into Bitcoin due to AI-related debt.