VanEck Sees Bitcoin Hitting $3 Million by 2050 as Dollar Hedge

VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, highlighted Bitcoin’s strong long-term potential as a hedge against dollar depreciation. The firm evaluates assets with a 10-year macroeconomic perspective and suggests that if Bitcoin becomes widely used in global trade, it could reach $3 million by 2050. Sigel noted growing interest in cryptocurrency among younger generations and sovereign states, indicating broader adoption ahead, despite expected volatility.

While optimistic long-term, VanEck remains cautious about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. The firm previously abandoned its $180,000 BTC price target set at the beginning of the year. Sigel also emphasized the advantages of Bitcoin mining companies, particularly their access to existing energy infrastructure and long-term contracts with investment-grade counterparts, reducing their dependence on Bitcoin’s current price.

VanEck views Bitcoin and gold as assets serving similar portfolio functions but with differing risk levels. Bitcoin is about three times more volatile than gold, leading institutional investors to allocate smaller shares of Bitcoin to achieve comparable risk levels. Sigel pointed out practical differences, such as Bitcoin’s instant transferability compared to gold’s physical transportation requirements. He also noted that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could theoretically double, supporting a positive outlook for Bitcoin over the next year.

Among the risks, Sigel highlighted quantum computing as a long-term threat, though not unique to cryptocurrencies. He expects the ecosystem to address this issue within the next few years. VanEck’s medium-term target for Bitcoin is $500,000, corresponding to 50% of gold’s market capitalization, which could materialize in the current or next market cycle. The firm’s long-term model allows for Bitcoin to reach $3 million by 2050 if it gains a significant share in global trade.