Waiting for Bitcoin's Crash Often Leads to Higher Purchase Prices

A test of buying Bitcoin after its price has fallen by at least 30% from a new high found that waiting for a crash often led to higher purchase prices. According to an analysis by Adam Livingston, vice president of investments at Strive Inc., a bitcoin treasury company, the strategy was unsuccessful in 61% of cases tested.

The test involved examining 216 new 52-week closing highs from January 2017 through October 2025 and modeling the purchase price after waiting for a 30% pullback. The results showed that the median entry price was 19% below the original high when the strategy secured a lower price, but was 76% above the high when it produced a higher price.

Livingston's analysis found that even smaller declines of 10% and 20% often failed to beat the earlier price. A 30% decline took a median 134 days to arrive, while waiting for a pullback from a later peak did not guarantee a return to an earlier price.