Bitcoin’s era of explosive, consecutive double-digit rallies is over, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets, Thielen argues that Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales have fundamentally altered the market’s dynamics. Institutional traders selling call options after price surges have reduced the violent price swings that characterized Bitcoin’s earlier years.
Thielen estimates that market makers account for up to half of the $60 billion in net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. These firms often hold ETF shares to hedge options trades, meaning the positions do not necessarily reflect a bullish bet on Bitcoin’s price. His analysis draws on Form 13F filings, which disclose certain securities holdings of investment managers. The first wave of ETF inflows also included retail investors buying through institutions and corporate vehicles, some paying premiums over the underlying crypto holdings.
Despite the shift in market behavior, Thielen remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. He predicts the cryptocurrency could reach $90,000 by year-end, though he expects a drop into the mid-to-high $70,000s first. Bitcoin has already traded in that range, falling to about $76,100 on Friday following Binance’s $6.3 billion hack. Thielen compares the recent price recovery to early 2023, when Bitcoin rose from around $20,000 to $30,000, noting that investors are again scanning for the next price drop and entry point.
Thielen also expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum, citing concerns that too much value from Ethereum activity flows to layer-2 networks. He describes Ethereum as a valuable utility but argues that users do not want to pay for it. Thielen has been bearish on Ether for over a year, comparing Ethereum to a highway that everyone wants to be empty but no one wants to fund.