Walsh's Jackson Hole Speech to Set Tone for Market

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will deliver his inaugural keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday at 22:00 (UTC+8). The core focus of the speech is the commitment to the inflation target, communication framework, and the Fed's role in a high-debt environment. Goldman Sachs expects that Walsh will not provide clear guidance for the September interest rate decision but instead reaffirm the 2% target.

Goldman Sachs notes that CME data shows a 63.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, with a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points at about 36.5%. The speech will serve as a pricing anchor for this week. If the roadmap is avoided, long-end yields and dollar fluctuations may increase; if the determination to combat inflation is reaffirmed, it may suppress interest rate-sensitive growth stocks in the short term.

The U.S. refusal to return to the June agreement with Iran has provided geopolitical support for oil prices, while concerns about OPEC unity are rising. Canada has expanded countermeasures tariffs, covering approximately $20 billion worth of U.S. goods, with measures effective from September 8.