XRP Price Holds Near $1.40 as Market Struggles to Absorb Released Coins

Ripple released one billion XRP from escrow at the start of September. By the end of the day, only 300 million remained outside new time locks. The price still hovers near $1.40.

The initial headline seemed bearish, but a closer look reveals that less happened than it appeared. Ripple released three old escrows, totaling 500 million, 400 million, and 100 million XRP. Hours later, two new escrows took 500 million and 200 million back, re-locking those coins.

This leaves 300 million XRP worth about $422 million outside of those locks. The market couldn't absorb it, with buy orders totaling $108.2 million being insufficient to match the available supply. These coins have not moved between Ripple-labelled wallets, indicating they are not a sale or exchange deposit.

The lack of movement is striking, especially since the 1-2 year holding band rose from 17.3% of the total supply in late August to about 18.2%. This suggests that older coins are refusing to move, and despite the price pullback since August 22, these holders have not sold into it.

The daily volume has fallen every session since the August 22 burst, down to around 27.6 million XRP. The chart is close to a golden cross, where the 20-day exponential moving average climbs above the slower 200-day line.

Fading volume shows up as lost leadership, with XRP's price action no longer driving the market. Over 21 sessions, it gained 42.4% against Bitcoin and Ethereum's 27.0% and 33.8%, respectively. However, over the last 14 days, it trailed by 5.7%.

The futures market also reflects this lack of confidence, with most large accounts betting on a rise without putting much behind it. Their shorts are the bigger trades, and the funding gap has turned negative.