XRP's October Headache: Why History Suggests a Pause for Bulls

XRP's third quarter was its strongest in four years, with a gain of 48.1%. However, this may not be enough to sustain the momentum as October is historically a poor month for the cryptocurrency.

Average returns for XRP in October are -5.14%, while the median return is even lower at -2.97%. This trend has been consistent over multiple years, including 2024 and 2025, where XRP ended the month in the red.

The fourth quarter as a whole looks promising, with an average return of +133.3% for XRP. However, this masks a slow start to the quarter, with November being the first month to see significant gains at +80.2% and December following closely behind at +63.1%. This suggests that capital has historically been invested in Q4 rather than at its beginning.

The strong rally in September was driven by heavy inflows into US spot ETFs, which pushed XRP's price up to $1.54. However, this rapid increase left the market in overbought territory and created a short squeeze that contributed significantly to the gains. As a result, leverage in the futures market is now excessive, making it necessary for the price to pull back and retest support between $1.30 and $1.40.