XRP's Price Action Echoes 2016 Trend as Key Levels Loom
XRP's recent price action bears an uncanny resemblance to its behavior in 2016, just before the cryptocurrency surged during the 2017 bull market. After a prolonged pullback since Q4 2025, XRP gained strength from July 2026 and posted three consecutive monthly gains for the first time since early 2025. However, October has started with selling pressure, with XRP down 0.46% two days into the month.
An analysis by market analyst EGRAG Crypto reveals that XRP's long-term price structure shares similarities with its previous trend in 2016. In six out of seven cases where XRP recorded a green September, October ended in the red, with an average loss of 85.7%. XRP is currently facing this scenario after three consecutive green monthly candles in July, August, and September.
The comparison between the two periods does not guarantee that XRP will repeat the exact same moves in 2026, but it suggests that a period of weakness and consolidation may precede another major upsurge. In fact, EGRAG noted that the current structure could give the market time to build a base before a possible expansion.
The Fibonacci extension level for XRP's current cycle sits at around $23, which remains a technical projection rather than a guarantee of reaching that price. Market watcher Chart Nerd also highlighted the importance of XRP reclaiming its 20-month EMA, currently standing at $1.55, as well as the 50-week EMA at $1.52.