AI Boom Masks Growing Risks in US Economy, Nomura Warns

Nomura analysts have warned that the artificial intelligence boom in the US has masked growing risks in the economy and capital markets. The Japanese investment bank's report states that a setback in the technology rally could trigger a sharp correction in US assets, weakening the dollar.

The concentration of global savings in US dollar assets has left investors exposed to a reversal in the AI-driven US equity rally, according to Nomura. The ratio of US net international investment position (NIIP) liabilities to the combined assets of all net creditor nations has risen to 80%.

US NIIP liabilities reached $21.9 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 71% of gross domestic product, while portfolio liabilities have quadrupled to $37.4 trillion from $9.2 trillion before the global financial crisis, Nomura's data showed.