Alberta Independence Could Cost Up to $170B Over Five Years

A new report from the University of Calgary School of Public Policy estimates that establishing an independent Alberta could cost up to $170 billion over five years. The study, commissioned by the provincial government, presents two scenarios: a smooth exit and a difficult one.

In the smooth scenario, negotiations with Canada would be quick and favorable to Alberta, resulting in a GDP 2.2% lower than it would have been otherwise. In the long term, the economy would be stronger, with GDP about 3.4% higher.

The report also warns that an independent Alberta could make the province more dependent on shipping its oil through the United States and vulnerable to swings in oil prices. The federal government could also decide it no longer sees advantage in new pipelines from Alberta to the U.S.

Alberta Finance Minister Jason Nixon stated that both scenarios would be costly in the short term and pose substantial uncertainty in the long term.