Alberta Separation Could Devastate Economy, New Report Warns

A new report by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe warns that Alberta's separation from Canada would involve significant economic risks, including a potential 12-18% drop in investment and a shift from a $19 billion annual surplus to a $9 billion deficit.

The analysis was commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and comes as Albertans prepare to vote on October 19 on whether to remain in Canada or proceed with separation.

Tombe's report highlights Alberta's high trade exposure, with nearly one-third of workers in a sector with significant trade ties to other provinces or countries. Excluding oil and gas, international exports account for approximately 15% of Alberta's total income.

The report also notes that separation would reduce the size of the economy, leading to lower revenues from income taxes and higher costs to execute core government functions.