Alberta, home to the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves, is set to vote Monday on whether its provincial government should begin the legal process for a binding separation referendum. The vote comes amid rising tensions between Canada and the U.S., particularly under President Trump's administration. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Carney addressed an anti-separation crowd in Alberta on Thursday, warning that the world has become "more dangerous and divided" and that "some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us." Though he did not name Trump directly, Carney earned applause when he mentioned reducing Canadian dependence on the U.S.
In a video released over Canadian Thanksgiving, Carney acknowledged the possibility of Alberta's separation but urged unity, stating, "we should recognize that the world has changed. Canada is facing real threats to our economy, to our security, to our way of life. We have to be strong, and we are stronger together." Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who voted to remain in Canada during advanced polling, acknowledged Albertans' grievances but argued that "now is not the time to give up hope in our country."
Recent polling shows that seven in ten Albertans want to remain part of Canada, suggesting that the separatist movement may lack broad support. Leaders of Quebec's separatist movement view Alberta's effort as different from their own and unlikely to succeed, given past failures in 1980 and 1995. Meanwhile, trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. continue to escalate, with Trump imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and banning imports of certain products like alcohol and dairy.
Canada's trade retaliation is impacting politically competitive U.S. states, and even some Republicans, like Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers, have called for an end to the trade war. Carney's plea for unity highlights the external threats Canada faces, urging Albertans to stand together in the face of separatist forces.