Alberta's Economy Expected to Grow Despite Global Turmoil

The global economic landscape has shifted significantly since our last outlook, and it's affecting Canada in unexpected ways. The war in Iran and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a massive energy shock that's upending global markets.

As a result, we've revised down our forecast for the Canadian economy to 1.3% real GDP growth this year versus 1.6% in our December forecast. Alberta is expected to weather the storm better than other provinces, with real GDP growth projected at 2.7%, up from our previous estimate of 2.1%. This growth isn't solely due to higher oil prices but rather a strong labour market and a rebalancing act in various sectors.

Alberta's economy has outperformed expectations in late 2025/early 2026, especially in the labour market. The province is expected to see annual employment growth of 3.1%, pulling the average unemployment rate down to 6.4% this year from 7.2% in 2025.