ANZ: NZ Economic Recovery 'Bumpy', Business Confidence Dips

The economic recovery in New Zealand is described as 'bumpy' by ANZ economists after their latest Business Outlook survey.

The survey, which analyzed responses from 1,500 businesses, found that business confidence dipped slightly to +52 in September, down from +53.7 in August.

Reported past activity also fell 5 points to +11, but ANZ senior economist Miles Workman noted that while most responses were received promptly, a quarter came in after a reminder, which may have been influenced by the rising oil prices.

The Dubai spot oil price rose sharply from US$100/bbl at the start of September to a peak of US$128 and then down to US$111 as the reminder went out on September 22. Notably, one-year-ahead inflation expectations remained steady at 3.25%, despite the increase in oil prices.

Workman described this as 'very early days' for the Reserve Bank's decision to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% from 2.50% on September 2, but noted that inflation indicators were not affected by the oil price increase.