AUD/USD Volatility Ahead of Next Inflation Report

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been sensitive to market expectations of another interest-rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which could happen in November. Westpac strategists still expect a hike, but Goldman Sachs and Rabobank favour patience.

The RBA's last rate increase in September took the cash rate to 4.60%, following a cumulative percentage point of tightening during 2026. The disagreement centres on whether those increases need more time to restrain demand or whether persistent inflation requires another move in November.

The next Australian CPI release on October 28 will include September-quarter figures, allowing investors to test Westpac's forecast before the November decision. This comes after August's trimmed-mean inflation matched Westpac's expectations and remains consistent with its forecast for a 0.9% quarterly rise in the third quarter.