August Jobs Report: Strong Payroll Print Could Boost Hike Odds

The August jobs report is set to be released on Friday, September 4th at 8:30 a.m. ET by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Consensus among economists points to an increase in nonfarm payrolls of around +50K to +55K, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are forecasted to rise about 0.2% month-over-month.

This jobs report is particularly important as it will be the last employment data release before the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) September 15-16 decision on interest rates. Chairman Kevin Warsh has recently expressed hawkish views, stating that inflation remains above target and that the Fed must be confident in underlying inflation trends.

Historically, weak payrolls have led to rate cuts, but this time around a strong August print could actually increase the likelihood of a rate hike. A hot jobs report would support the dollar, front-end Treasury yields, and put pressure on gold and rate-sensitive equities.