August US Employment Gain May Be Overstated Due to Seasonal Adjustments

The US nonfarm employment figure for August may have been overstated due to seasonal adjustments. According to recent data, unadjusted employment increased by 154,000 in August, a level similar to 2025. If the same seasonal adjustment factor used last year were applied, the August employment gain would be estimated at about 15,000.

This discrepancy has raised questions about the reliability of the headline August employment figure as a benchmark for assessing September labor-market trends. The US nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, but favorable seasonal adjustments may have made the increase look stronger than it actually was.